Logical Fallacies

Logical Fallacies


  • Overconfidence — wishful thinking bias
    • most people think they are above avg
    • overestimate possibilities that they want to happen
    • this could explain the trade in financial market
    • overconfidence in friends and leaders

Cognitive Dissonance

  • Cognitive Dissonance 认知失调
    • this concept used to describe the mental discomfort that results from holding two conflicting beliefs, values or attitudes
    • People tend to seek consistency in their attitudes and perceptions, so this conflict causes feelings of unease or discomfort
    • This inconsistency between what people believe and how they behave motivates people to engage in actions that will help minimize feelings of discomfort
    • when we made decision, most people will still look for info about it, to self prove hisself right… in a lot different aspects… to make themselves happy, and to prove they are make right decision
    • disposition effect — gonna avoid that
    • what’s the causes for that?
      • Forced Compliance
        • Engaging in behaviors that are opposed to your own beliefs due to external expectations, often for work, school, or a social situation
      • New Information
      • Decisions
        • People make decisions both large and small, on a daily basis
        • When faced with two similar choices, people often are left with feelings of dissonance because both options are equally appealing
        • Once they make decisions, people need to find a way to reduce feelings of discomfort
        • Accomplish by justifying why their choice was the best option so that they can believe they made the right decision

Mental Compartments

  • Mental compartments
    • people don’t look at whole portfolio, in fact, people has two or more portfolio
      • usually they have a safe part and a risky part

Attention Anomalies

  • Attention Anomalies
    • We cannot pay attention to anything
    • Attention is fundamental aspect of human intelligence and its limits
    • Social Basis for attention
      • We incline to pay more attention to what other s pay attention to


  • Anchoring
    • A tendency in ambiguous situations to allow one’s decisions to be affected by some anchor
    • Our subconscious will do anchoring for us, lol
    • subjects unaware of their own anchoring behavior
    • stock prices anchored to past values, or to other stock in same market

Representativeness Heuristic

  • Representativeness Heuristic
    • People judge by similarity to familiar types, without regard to base rate probabilities
      • For example, we describe a person as artist, and skeptical, then what’s the highest possible occupation of him/ her?
        • two choice: banker, and sculptress
        • should be banker, cause there are so many more bank tellers than sculptresses
    • Tendency to see patterns in what is really random walk
    • Stock price manipulators try to create patterns to fool investors

Disjunction Effect

  • inability to make decisions in advance in anticipation of future information

Magical Thinking & Quasi Magical Thinking

  • Some coincidence lead you to build superstitious, but there are actually no karma (cause and effect)
  • Belief that unrelated events are causally connected despite the absence of any plausible causal link between them, particularly as a result of supernatural effects.
  • E.G
    • For voting, though our vote actually has basically 0 possibility to influence president election, but a lot people do it
    • For lottery, we somehow put more money if we select the number

Personality Disorders

  • culture and social contagion — collective memory
    • same effect, same memory, then similar decisions
  • Antisocial Personality Disorder

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文章标题:Logical Fallacies


本文作者:Leilei Chen

发布时间:2021-09-12, 09:23:39

最后更新:2021-09-12, 09:50:35


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