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Logical Fallacies

Overconfidence

• Overconfidence — wishful thinking bias
  • most people think they are above avg
  • overestimate possibilities that they want to happen
  • this could explain the trade in financial market
  • overconfidence in friends and leaders

Cognitive Dissonance

• Cognitive Dissonance 认知失调
  • this concept used to describe the mental discomfort that results from holding two conflicting beliefs, values or attitudes
  • People tend to seek consistency in their attitudes and perceptions, so this conflict causes feelings of unease or discomfort
  • This inconsistency between what people believe and how they behave motivates people to engage in actions that will help minimize feelings of discomfort
  • when we made decision, most people will still look for info about it, to self prove hisself right… in a lot different aspects… to make themselves happy, and to prove they are make right decision
  • disposition effect — gonna avoid that
  • what’s the causes for that?
    • Forced Compliance
      • Engaging in behaviors that are opposed to your own beliefs due to external expectations, often for work, school, or a social situation
    • New Information
    • Decisions
      • People make decisions both large and small, on a daily basis
      • When faced with two similar choices, people often are left with feelings of dissonance because both options are equally appealing
      • Once they make decisions, people need to find a way to reduce feelings of discomfort
      • Accomplish by justifying why their choice was the best option so that they can believe they made the right decision

Mental Compartments

• Mental compartments
  • people don’t look at whole portfolio, in fact, people has two or more portfolio
    • usually they have a safe part and a risky part

Attention Anomalies

• Attention Anomalies
  • We cannot pay attention to anything
  • Attention is fundamental aspect of human intelligence and its limits
  • Social Basis for attention
    • We incline to pay more attention to what other s pay attention to

Anchoring

• Anchoring
  • A tendency in ambiguous situations to allow one’s decisions to be affected by some anchor
  • Our subconscious will do anchoring for us, lol
  • subjects unaware of their own anchoring behavior
  • stock prices anchored to past values, or to other stock in same market

Representativeness Heuristic

• Representativeness Heuristic
  • People judge by similarity to familiar types, without regard to base rate probabilities
    • For example, we describe a person as artist, and skeptical, then what’s the highest possible occupation of him/ her?
      • two choice: banker, and sculptress
      • should be banker, cause there are so many more bank tellers than sculptresses
  • Tendency to see patterns in what is really random walk
  • Stock price manipulators try to create patterns to fool investors

Disjunction Effect

• inability to make decisions in advance in anticipation of future information

Magical Thinking & Quasi Magical Thinking

• Some coincidence lead you to build superstitious, but there are actually no karma (cause and effect)
• Belief that unrelated events are causally connected despite the absence of any plausible causal link between them, particularly as a result of supernatural effects.
• E.G
  • For voting, though our vote actually has basically 0 possibility to influence president election, but a lot people do it
  • For lottery, we somehow put more money if we select the number

Personality Disorders

• culture and social contagion — collective memory
  • same effect, same memory, then similar decisions
• Antisocial Personality Disorder

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